Lost in the celebration of trade pacts: why the deal that matters most has no signing ceremony

Question (10 marks, ~150 words):

'A trade agreement is not the same as trade.' In the light of India's recent FTAs with the UK and EU, critically examine whether India's trade diplomacy is prioritising the right partners, and suggest a way forward for its external trade strategy.

Introduction:

• India is celebrating the UK CETA (2025) and an EU FTA (by 2027), yet its largest goods surplus (~$42 bn, 2020-25) is with the US, with which it has no FTA — raising whether the celebration targets the right prize.

What the FTAs deliver:

• Duty-free, rules-based access (UK: 99% of exports) and predictability, valuable for textiles, leather and gems — but small surpluses (~$12 bn combined for EU+UK+Japan).

Why the US matters more:

• Highest-value surplus rests on real comparative advantage — generic pharma (~40% of US volumes), electronics, engineering; the surplus grew ($7 bn to $42 bn) without any treaty.

The cautions:

• Japan's CEPA (2011) failed to hit its target as non-tariff barriers persisted; the China deficit (~$99 bn) dwarfs every FTA gain.

Way forward:

• Pursue durable market access with the US; attack partners' non-tariff barriers; a serious plan to cut China import dependence; use FTAs as incremental gains, not the summit.

Rajasthan relevance:

• Bhilwara/Pali textiles, Jaipur gems, handicrafts, stone and guar-gum exports ride directly on these tariff lines.

Conclusion:

• Keep the ceremonies in proportion — improve the margin, but muster the will for the deal that changes the game.